20200420_Box_Office_IBT
Annual box office earnings in North America (not adjusted for inflation). Statista / IBT

Movie theaters and the film industry have been hit incredibly hard by the coronavirus pandemic, as screens went dark in most parts of the world in late March, when strict social distancing measures were implemented to contain the virus. Box office earnings vanished practically overnight, and film studios were forced to push back movie releases to later in the year, hoping that things will be back to normal by then.

Executives from Cinemark, the third largest cinema chain in the United States, said in an investor call last week that they’re hoping to reopen theaters on July 1, all while implementing the appropriate measures to limit contact between visitors. The Trump administration fueled such hopes last week, when movie theaters were included in phase one of the “Opening Up American Again” guidelines, which would allow “large venues (incl. movie theaters) to “operate under strict physical distancing protocols” in states and regions that satisfy certain “gating criteria”.

Even if this was the case and cinemas were to reopen by late June/early July, the damage inflicted on the industry would be substantial. Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter expects domestic box office earnings to reach around $6.7 billion this year, down from more than $11 billion in each of the past five years. “Our estimates reflect our opinion that most theaters will remain closed domestically well into June, with a slow recovery over the balance of the year,” Pacter wrote in a research note quoted by CNBC. As opposed to other industries hoping for a quick recovery once the lockdown period is over, movie theaters will likely see a slower return to normal. It remains to be seen how quickly consumers regain the confidence to watch a movie in a packed cinema after self-isolating for months.