- Oil prices drifting lower
April 30 2013 8:45 AM
The oil complex inched higher pushing all of the commodities in the complex to near the upper end of their respective trading ranges. At the moment the technical driven rally in oil prices is offsetting the fundamental view that supply is robust and demand is faltering in sync with the slowing global economy. The upside momentum picked up as Monday's trading session progressed after starting the week in negative territory. The market has not only been driven by a technical short covering rally but the oil complex has been relatively in sync with the equity markets… especially the western bourses. Yesterday the US and European equity markets moved higher with the US S&P notching a new all-time high providing short term support for oil and other commodity prices along the journey.
- Brent On Track to Post the Largest Monthly Loss in Nearly a Year
April 30 2013 8:35 AM
On the final day in April, Brent crude oil looks poised for the largest monthly decline in almost a year. The commodity has been under heavy pressure this month as weak economic data from the world's largest oil consumers piled up. Brent traded at $103.55 at 5:55 GMT on Tuesday morning, the result of optimistic hopes for global economic stimulus.
- Oil prices mixed to start the trading week
April 29 2013 8:25 AM
As discussed in the newsletter two weeks ago I suggested that the oil complex was in the early stages of forming a technical bottom pattern. I also said this was the second try at forming a bottom in the month of April with the first attempt in the beginning of the month. The first try failed but so far the second attempt has been successful pushing all of the commodities in the complex into a new higher trading range or the range that was in play during the first half of April. At the moment the complex is still in a recovery trend that has been driven more by short covering rather than by a surge of new longs moving back into the market. From a technical perspective the market is still trading in the higher trading range but it is starting to look like the upside momentum may be starting to lessen over the last two trading sessions.
- Nat Gas starting week in positive territory
April 29 2013 8:20 AM
The new spot June Nymex Nat Gas contract has mostly followed the trading pattern of the expired May contract over the last several trading sessions. The June contract also made several passes at breaching the upper range resistance level of $4.40/mmbtu and also failed. So far this morning in overnight trading the market is starting out on a positive note and is now sitting in about the middle of the trading range. Technically the market is suggesting a range bound trading pattern for the short term as traders and investors look toward the fundamentals for more medium term guidance.
- Brent Slips After Last Week's Gain
April 29 2013 8:11 AM
After falling more than six percent in April, Brent crude oil sagged on Monday and lost some ground as it slipped below $103 on worries about the global economic outlook. The commodity fell to $102.64 at 6:06 GMT on Monday morning following last week's impressive gains. China will have a large influence on Brent prices this week as new manufacturing data for April will be released. According to Reuters, the oil consuming giant's manufacturing sector is expected to show improvement from March's figures. However, the HSBC purchasing managers' survey painted a bleak picture for the nation, and caused many to rethink their predictions for a Chinese recovery. The data showed that the Chinese industrial sector shrank and new exports decreased.
- Polar Star Mining Drill Program at Chépica Site Shows Promise
April 26 2013 1:57 PM
Polar Star Mining completed its 16-hole, 2,500-meter surface drill program at its Chepica gold/copper mine project, near Talca, Chile.
- Nat Gashovering near range support
April 25 2013 8:22 AM
Heading into this morning's EIA weekly Nat Gas report the futures market is hovering around the trading range lower support level and barely remaining above it. In yesterday's newsletter I indicated that the market was setting up for a test of the range support level of $4.16/mmbtu and so far in light overnight trading the first pass at that test has already occurred with prices holding support so far. However, there is a lot of trading time left to the day with Europe trading just getting underway and the US yet to get started. In addition today the EIA inventory report will likely play a role in whether or not the range support is still in play or not by the end of the US trading session.
- Brent Ticks Up on Weaker Dollar
April 25 2013 8:07 AM
Brent crude oil climbed higher on Thursday morning and traded at $101.49 at 8:37 GMT. The commodity picked up after data showing the US economy was weakening weighed on the dollar. The state of the global economy has been pressuring Brent prices as some of the world's largest oil consuming economies released disappointing data this week.
- OIl steady ahead of EIA inventory report
April 24 2013 9:12 AM
Firming equity markets in the US were enough to bolster oil prices after their negative start on Tuesday reversing the selling from the decline in China's PMI data. The oil complex has been under pressure for the last several weeks as the market focuses on a weakening oil demand scenario on the back of a slowing global economy. Most of the macroeconomic data hitting the media airwaves over the last several weeks has been suggesting that economies in both the developed and emerging market world may be heading for a period of slowing… even the main economic and oil demand growth engine of the world China.
- Nat Gas trading either side of unchanged
April 24 2013 9:07 AM
The spot Nymex futures contract is settling into the trading range that has now been in play since the middle of April. The market has failed three times to breach the upper range resistance level of $4.40/mmbtu and is now currently inching closer toward a possible test of the lower range support area of $4.16/mmbtu. From a technical perspective the upside momentum that was in place since mid-February has certainly faded while the market does not seem ready for a strong downside correction.
- Brent Climbs to $100 on Supply Tightening Speculation
April 24 2013 9:02 AM
Brent crude oil traded above the $100 mark on Wednesday morning on speculation that OPEC would make the necessary adjustments to increase the commodity's price if it remained below $100. Brent traded at $100.85 at 9:10 GMT on Wednesday morning. After keeping oil output constant at December's meeting, some OPEC members have called for an emergency meeting to tighten up supply. The organization, which supplies more than one third of the world's oil, is set to meet on May 31st for a regularly scheduled meeting.
- US Dependent On 5 Countries For Oil
April 23 2013 1:42 PM
The concentration of U.S. crude oil imports among its top-five suppliers is the highest since 1997.
- Nat Gas drifting lower
April 23 2013 8:31 AM
For the third trading session in a row the spot Nymex Nat Gas contract failed to breach the $4.40/mmbtu resistance level after trading up to this level each day. In addition not only did the market fail to move through the $4.40/mmbtu level when it did fail it reversed and turned lower for the day. The market has been drifting lower in overnight trading so far suggesting that the market may now be setting up for a test of the lower range support level of $4.16/mmbtu.
- China PMI weighing on oil complex
April 23 2013 8:28 AM
The technical bottoming pattern that had started to form in the oil complex over the last few trading sessions may run into some difficulty after the latest release of the flash PMI manufacturing data out of China overnight. China's manufacturing-activity growth has slowed this month, according to HSBC data released Tuesday. The flash version of HSBC's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index fell to a two-month low of 50.5 from March's final reading of 51.6, and well below a market consensus forecast of 51.5. New export orders contracted after a temporary rebound in March, suggesting external demand for China's exporters remains weak which should not be a surprise as the economies of its two largest customers… Europe & the US remain sluggish.
- Brent Sagging on Chinese PMI Data
April 23 2013 8:21 AM
After briefly reaching above the $100 mark on Monday morning for the first time in five sessions, Brent crude oil dipped again on Tuesday following disappointing Purchasing Managers data from China which confirmed worries about future supply growth. The commodity traded at 99.75 at 5:35 GMT on Tuesday morning. Brent's sagging price has caused problems for some of OPEC's members whose budget breakeven point is $100 per barrel. The organization has a scheduled meeting for May 31, at which some are expecting talk of tightening up supply to keep prices above $100.
- Nat Gas starting the trading week on the defensive
April 22 2013 8:39 AM
The spot Nat Gas futures contract started Sunday's trading session around the $4.40/mmbtu technical resistance level only to fail to solidly breach it (so far) for the third trading session in a row. Much as the market did when it was hovering around the then resistance area (now support) at the $4.16/mmbtu level. It took about five attempts spread out over the course of a two week period before the market breached and remained above the $4.16/mmbtu level. Today's failure to get through the $4.40/mmbtu level and move into a declining pattern for the session is somewhat bearish but trading is normally light overnight with a more representative picture coming when the US market open for trading later today.
- Week starting with uncertainty over global economic growth
April 22 2013 8:34 AM
Oil and most risk asset markets struggled last week as the markets were mostly driven by a risk off trading pattern. As discussed in more detail below most of the risk asset markets monitored in the newsletter were lower for the week. Oil has been under pressure from all three major fronts… fundamentals, technicals and global economic outlook. On the fundamental front the markets have been hit with mostly bearish snapshots for the last two weeks.
- Brent Hovers at $100 Ahead of Fresh Economic Data
April 22 2013 8:27 AM
Brent crude oil began the week with little momentum after falling below $100 last week on weak demand growth prospects and poor economic data from some of the commodity's largest consumers. On Monday morning, Brent traded at $100.44 at 10:13 GMT. When Brent prices dipped below the $100 mark, some members of OPEC began to worry because for many nations the budget break even point is $100. Leaders from Iran and Venezuela made comments indicating that the group was considering calling an emergency meeting ahead of its regularly scheduled May 31 summit, but no concrete plans have been made.
- Brent Makes Modest Recovery as OPEC Considers Emergency Meeting
April 19 2013 8:55 AM
After falling from $106 per barrel in just under a week, Brent crude oil made a modest comeback on Friday morning. The commodity traded at 99.58 as it made its way toward the $100 mark at 9:40 GMT on Friday. According to CNBC, the recovery is shaky as many analysts believe the market is simply stabilizing after the massive sell off. Though bargain hunters have been buying the commodity on hopes of improvement in the weeks to come, data from around the globe supports concern about the commodity's demand growth in the future.
- Nat Gas back in higher trading range
April 18 2013 8:40 AM
Nat Gas prices remained firm heading into Thursday,s weekly inventory snapshot. For the second day in a row the spot Nat Gas futures contract has traded and settled above the $4.16/mmbtu support level. At the moment the technicals are suggesting that the market is building momentum for another test of working toward the upper resistance level of around $4.40/mmbtu.