CDC Predicts More Than 70,000 US COVID-19 Deaths By Feb. 26

KEY POINTS

The U.S. may log an additional 38,000 to 70,826 COVID-19 deaths by Feb. 26, says the CDC
An average of 2,400 people died of COVID-19 daily over the past week
Only 63% of Americans have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19

The United States could witness more than 70,000 new COVID-19 deaths by Feb. 26, according to a new forecast from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

In a new national ensemble forecast published Tuesday, the CDC predicted that the country could reach a total of 933,000 to 965,000 COVID-19 deaths by Feb. 26. As of Wednesday, the country logged 894,174 coronavirus-related fatalities. This means the U.S. may log an additional 38,826 to 70,826 deaths by the reported date.

Ensemble forecasts are made by combining independent team forecasts into one forecast. The figures in the model also take into account various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other mitigation measures. However, it does not reflect any recent changes in behavior.

The forecast comes as the U.S. COVID-19 death toll hit its highest level in a year, rising by 39% over the past 14 days. The death toll also rose to an average of 2,400 daily fatalities over the past week, data compiled by Johns Hopkins University showed.

Jennifer Nuzzo, the head of epidemiology at Johns Hopkins Covid Resource Center, said the death toll could rise even more as the highly transmissible Omicron variant hits states with lower vaccination rates.

“Any time we have deaths after the development of a vaccine — [which] largely takes off the table the possibility of death — is a tragedy,” Nuzzo told CNBC.

Worldwide, the United States still leads other wealthy countries in COVID-19 deaths. Many health experts point to the country's failure to vaccinate as many people as other wealthy nations. As of Wednesday, only 63.9% of the U.S. population has been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 and only 75.4% of Americans have received at least one dose.

The U.S. is also lagging in administering booster doses to people eligible to receive the shots. As of Wednesday, only 41.8% of the U.S. population has been boosted against COVID-19, according to the CDC’s COVID-19 Data Tracker.

“The U.S. stands out as having a relatively high fatality rate,” Joseph Dieleman, an associate professor at the University of Washington, told The New York Times. “There’s been more loss than anyone wanted or anticipated.”