KEY POINTS

  • Deutsche Bank identified four disastrous events that could happen within the next decade
  • The chance of one of these events happening in the near future is one out of three
  • Each of these events could be worse than the effects of the current COVID-19 pandemic

Multinational banking and investment firm Deutsche Bank revealed in a recent report that a disastrous event far worse than the COVID-19 pandemic has a good chance of happening within the next decade. In the report, the company identified four major disasters that could hit Earth within the next couple of years.

Analysts from Deutsche Bank conducted the statistical report for their clients to identify potential risks to the global market. According to the analysts, an event deadlier and more destructive than the coronavirus has a one-out-of-three chance of occurring with the next decade, Market Watch reported.

Although the analysts did not specify which disaster will occur next, they indicated in the report that it could come in the form of a massive volcanic eruption, a global war, a powerful solar flare or a major influenza pandemic.

As noted by Deutsche Bank, any of these disasters will have far worse effects than the coronavirus. Currently, COVID-19 has caused over 446,000 deaths globally. Unfortunately, previous studies have estimated that a major influenza outbreak could cause around 2.2 million deaths.

“Before COVID-19 occurred, Madhav et al. [in 2017] estimated there was an annual probability of two percent that an influenza pandemic will cause 2.2 million pneumonia and influenza deaths or more globally,” the bank stated in the report.

The bank’s analysts also noted that volcanic eruptions and a major war are both capable of causing high death rates and affecting the global economy. The effects of these disasters, depending on the magnitude of the event, could last for years.

Another major event that can happen within the next decade is a powerful solar flare emitted by the Sun. According to previous scientific studies, solar flares are capable of disrupting satellite operations and electrical facilities. Aside from wide-scale blackouts, these could lead to a lack of satellite support such as GPS and mobile communications.

“There could be major power outages as electrical power grids are disrupted, which in turn would have knock-on effects throughout the economy as critical infrastructure is unable to be run properly. Lives could be lost if it impacted hospitals and medical care,” Deutsche Bank stated.

Surging tolls in the Americas and South Asia, and a new outbreak in China, have raised fresh doubts about when the world can bring COVID-19 under control
Surging tolls in the Americas and South Asia, and a new outbreak in China, have raised fresh doubts about when the world can bring COVID-19 under control AFP / Arun SANKAR