American University professor Allan Lichtman, who has a history of accurate presidential election forecasts, said this week that he believes presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden will defeat incumbent President Donald Trump in November. Lichtman has previously predicted Trump's upset win in 2016 and claims to have accurately called every election since 1984. 

Lichtman made the prediction during a video op-ed published Wednesday in the New York Times. Lichtman uses a system of 13 factors called the “keys” to make his predictions. 

“The keys predict that Trump will lose the White House,” Lichtman said in the video. The “keys” range from factors such as social unrest to short-term and long-term economic conditions.

Lichtman claimed that seven of the 13 “keys” favor the former vice president. He cited the economic downturn under Trump, along with the social unrest after the death of George Floyd as factors that would help Biden’s presidential bid. Lichtman also pointed to scandals under Trump, such as his impeachment earlier this year, as another “key” that would help Biden’s electoral chances.

Lichtman also does not characterize Trump as a “charismatic,” claiming he only appeals to a narrow part of the population. This is another positive sign for Biden’s reelection hopes.

“Keys” that favor Trump include the fact that he is an incumbent and has faced no serious challenger for the Republican nomination. Trump has also made serious policy changes as president, with Lichtman citing the 2017 tax cut and his reversal of Obama-era decisions. In addition, the Trump administration has not experienced any major military failures abroad.

Lichtman has been wrong in his predictions before, however. He predicted that Al Gore would win the 2000 election against George W. Bush, but Gore ultimately lost the race following a Supreme Court decision. He also forecast that Trump would win the popular vote, which he lost to Hillary Clinton by almost 2.9 million votes but still won 304 electoral votes.

Lichtman said “there are forces at play outside the keys” in play during the 2020 race, citing possible Russian interference and voter suppression tactics. 

Recent general election polls show Biden with a strong lead over Trump amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Trump is pressed for time to turn around his campaign, with some critical swing states beginning to vote by mail in September.