Below is a list of the 10 most important economic events for 2011. The two ranking criteria used are the likelihood of decisions being reached and the impact of those decisions.
Below is a list of the 10 most important economic events for 2011. The two ranking criteria used are the likelihood of decisions being reached and the impact of those decisions.
Email Hao Li at hao.li@ibtimes.com
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Time : Varies for each country
Location: Varies for each countryIn 2011, key decisions need to be made on the monetary policy front.For the U.S., it will be whether the Federal Reserve will expand, cut back, or stick with the original $600-billion amount for its controversial program of quantitative easing. The European Central Bank needs to make decisions about the purchases of peripheral sovereign debt and the availability of various lending facilities to banks.Conversely, central banks of emerging market countries need to determine how fast they will tighten monetary policy, especially in light of the rampant food inflation in several of these countries.These monetary policy decisions -- made mostly at scheduled meetings -- will impact the movement of hundreds of billions of dollars.Below is the scheduled meetings of the U.S. Federal Reserve.January 25-26
March 15
April 26-27
June 21-22
August 9
September 20
November 1-2
December 13REUTERSTime: 7 meetings
Location: Mostly in Brussels, BelgiumThe fate of the euro zone (and euro currency) looks precarious.The key issue is that euro zone members share a common currency and monetary policy without the corresponding convergences in the underlying economy and fiscal policy.To complicate things, experts and decision makers disagree on the solution. Some think the euro zone should be broken up in the fastest and most painless way possible. Others argue that the crisis is an opportunity to take the next step in European integration.Moreover, the divergent wills of the citizens of individual euro zone countries are unpredictable and may force the hands of the European elites.As the Euro Group -- which consists of the finance ministers of the euro zone -- meets, decisions will be made.While no significant change may take place, volatile results in either direction (integration or dissolution) are quite possible. The consequences, especially those of dissolution, can ripple through the global financial system and economy.
The following are the meetings scheduled for the Euro Group.17-01-2011 Brussels
14-02-2011 Brussels
14-03-2011 Brussels
08-04-2011 Budapest
16-05-2011 Brussels
14-06-2011 Luxembourg
11-07-2011 BrusselsREUTERSTime: June 2
Location: Vienna, AustriaThe price of oil will be a highly relevant issue due to loose monetary policy from the U.S. and burgeoning demand from developing countries.If prices continue to increase and production doesn't ramp up in response, the burden of expensive crude oil will weigh on both consumers and industrial users.In fact, some theorists believe that rising oil prices are the main cause of recessions.(Since World War II, every single U.S. recession except for one has been preceded by a spike in oil prices, according the American Enterprise Institute.)Just how much oil prices impact the real economy is debatable.However, what's pretty certain -- and a major reason that the OPEC meeting is ranked 3 -- is the fact that OPEC makes real decisions about production quotas at their meetings and this quota can have significant impact on oil prices.REUTERSTime: November 3 to 4
Location: Cannes, FranceThe G20 Summit is the most important of the 'a bunch of powerful people gathering together' events.The flaw is that like other such events, a real unified decision will not likely be reached.However, the G20 Summit -- which gathers leaders from 20 of the most powerful countries in the world -- is the event that boasts the greatest concentration of power the world has ever seen.Plus, the stated purpose of the G20 is to discuss (and possibly resolve) key issues in the global economy, so the participants are at least trying to produce real results.Lastly, at 2008's G20 Summit, which took place at the height of the financial crisis, world leaders were moderately successful in reaching some actionable agreements.REUTERSTime: Spring meeting April 16 to 17, Annual meeting September 23
Location: Washington D.C., United StatesThe IMF/World Bank meetings address some of the same issues as the G20 Summit. However, the decisions reached at the G20 meeting tend to carry more weight.Another difference is that the IMF and World Bank meetings focus on the role these two institutions play on the world's economic stage.In particular, the issue of the over-representation of European countries and the under-representation of Asian countries at the IMF will likely be discussed again. This is a serious matter because the allegedly unfavorable treatment of Asian countries after the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis is often cited as a reason for their decision to accumulate foreign exchange reserves in recent years.Moreover, the prominence of the IMF has also been elevated because of the role it played in bailing out failing euro zone members. In 2011, it may very well bail out more euro zone countries.Lastly, any movement to shift away from the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency to a new global currency or currency regime will likely involve the IMF. This subject will probably not be officially broached at the 2011 meetings, but it's still something to keep an eye on.REUTERSTime: January 26 to 30
Location: Davos, SwitzerlandThe World Economic Forum, hosted at Davos each year, boasts some impressive attendees in business, politics, academia, and the media. In 2010, attendees included Bill Gates, Bill Clinton, and Josef Ackermann, which belong to the same crowd as the Bilderberg and IMF/World Bank attendees.However, Davos has evolved into somewhat of a social gathering for elites. In fact, people like Reuters blogger Felix Salmon and economics author Nassim Taleb openly mock it.Moreover, it's not purely about economics as health and environmental issues are also discussed.Nevertheless, power brokers do gather at Davos and their swapping of ideas may indirectly impact their real-life decision making.
REUTERS
