Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is beating incumbent Republican President Donald Trump by 4 points in Ohio, a poll released on Monday indicated. The survey, commissioned  by journalism collaborative Your Voice Ohio, puts Biden at 46% support in the Buckeye State, with Trump at 42%.

Trump carried Ohio by an 8-point margin in 2016 against Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, the largest victory in the state for a Republican presidential nominee in nearly three decades. Barack Obama, a Democrat, won the state in both 2008 and 2012. 

The survey was conducted by the Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics at the University of Akron and the Center for Marketing and Opinion Research in Akron. The poll of 1,037 registered voters was taken June 24 to July 15 and has a 3-point margin of error.

The results could be a dire warning for the Trump campaign. 

“No Republican has ever been elected or reelected in American history without carrying Ohio, so there’s a particular burden on Trump and his allies and supporters to compete effectively in Ohio,” John Green, director emeritus of the Bliss Institute told The Toledo Blade. “These numbers forecast a very competitive race in the state.”

The Cook Political Report has rated Ohio as “Lean Republican” in the general election. Although urban areas such as Cleveland tend to be more liberal, rust belt areas have been fond of Trump’s “America first” message.

Yet, the ongoing coronavirus outbreak, along with the state of the economy, could be hurting Trump’s chances in the Midwestern state. On Monday, the Ohio Department of Health announced more than 900 more cases in the state, with Ohio having a total of 93,963 cases and 3,539 deaths from the virus. 

Although Ohio has become less of a swing state, typical battlegrounds such as Michigan and Florida are increasingly going for Biden, the latest polls indicate. Biden is also beating Trump handily in the popular vote, surveys indicate, as the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak shows no signs of subsiding. In 2016, Hillary Clinton secured 3 million more votes than Trump, but he won the Electoral College.