KEY POINTS

  • A New York Times/Siena College poll shows Trump winning reelection by a 48% to 42% margin over Sanders
  • Trump bests Biden 45% to 44%
  • He's ahead of Mike Bloomberg 47% to 39%

As national polls have been predicting over the past few weeks, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-VT, will win the Iowa caucus on February 3. But can he beat president Donald Trump? A new poll by The New York Times/Siena College conducted from Jan. 20 to 23 says he won't.

Among the questions the poll asked was: "If the U.S. presidential election were held today, who would you vote for?"

The results show 45 percent of Iowa voters choosing Trump compared to 44 percent voting for former vice president Joe Biden and South Bend, Indiana mayor Pete Buttigieg. Trump enjoyed a 46 percent to 41 percent lead over Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-MN; a 47 percent to 42 percent edge over Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-MA; a 48 percent to 42 percent advantage over Sanders; and a 47 percent to 39 percent lead over former New York City mayor Mike Bloomberg.

Trump, of course, went to town on the news. He immediately tweeted on Thursday: "Great poll in Iowa, where I just landed for a Big Rally!" Trump carried Iowa by nearly 10 points in 2016.

Political analysts say the poll result confirms a stubborn problem facing Democrats -- they've got too many good candidates splitting the vote enough to allow Trump to win.

This poll also underlines the same generational and ideological divisions among Iowa Democrats deeply dividing them -- and Democrats nationwide -- over whom to support. What the new New York Times/Siena College poll does confirm, however, is the huge gains Sanders has made over the past month despite a flap involving Warren and being personally attacked by Hillary Clinton, who two weeks ago all but labeled Sanders an incompetent career politician nobody likes.

"He was in Congress for years," said Clinton. "He had one senator support him," said Clinton. "Nobody likes him. Nobody wants to work with him. He got nothing done."

Iowa voters still see Sanders as the candidate likeliest to beat Trump. It's all about electability now. Sanders is the first choice among Iowa Democrats as the party nominee; he took 25 percent of the vote in Iowa. The young Buttigieg, who keeps being criticized for his youth and inexperience, was the favorite of 18 percent while Biden took 17 percent.

White House Senator Elizabeth Warren declined to shake hands with rival candidate Senator Bernie Sanders (R) after the Democratic Party's final presidential primary debate before Iowa launches the nomination voting on February 3, 2020
White House Senator Elizabeth Warren declined to shake hands with rival candidate Senator Bernie Sanders (R) after the Democratic Party's final presidential primary debate before Iowa launches the nomination voting on February 3, 2020 AFP / Robyn Beck

Analysts said Sanders' ascent has come at the expense of Warren, his fellow progressive, now coping with campaign finance problems. The poll showed her falling from 22 percent in the October poll -- where she led all contenders -- to 15 percent in this one.

And, as seen in other polls, Sanders is the candidate of younger Democrats. Sanders, 78, leads with Iowa voters under 30, and is supported by 40 percent of this demographic. Oddly, only nine percent of his peer age group, or voters voters 65 and older, support him. Biden is the man for 32 percent of those over 65 but receives only 10 percent support among the youngest Iowa caucusgoers.