KEY POINTS

  • A new poll shows 45% say they'll vote for the Democratic presidential candidate, whoever he or she is
  • The strong economy won't save Trump from defeat in November
  • Only 30% of poll respondents said they like Trump personally

President Donald Trump's job approval rating has risen but not enough to ensure his victory against whichever Democratic presidential candidate he faces on November 3.

The latest Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll reveals 45 percent of voters saying they will definitely or probably vote for the Democratic nominee, whoever he or she is. In contrast, 39 percent claim they will definitely or probably vote for Trump. Trump's current standing, however, is four points higher than the previous Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll in July.

“Trump’s prospects have surprisingly increased throughout impeachment,” explains Mark Penn, the Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll polling director.

“His strong support has increased and performance on the economy increased to 60 percent approval. On the other hand, his re-elect is relatively weak and so this is a race that is like the Super Bowl -- each side here has the ability to punch through in a campaign.”

Analysts said among the factors lowering Trump's chances of victory is 53 percent of voters saying the United States is on the wrong track compared to 39 percent with the opposite opinion.

Men are more optimistic the U.S. is headed in the right direction. The poll shows 46 percent of men agreeing with this statement while only 32 percent of women feel the same way. This result again underlines Trump's relentless weakness among women, which remains a serious vulnerability for him as he seeks reelection. Adding to Trump's woes: only 31 percent of Independents say the country is on the right track.

Voters also still have a strong negative view of Trump as a person. Only 30 percent of poll respondents said they like Trump personally. Only 23 percent of women view Trump favorably, which is still surprising considering the many controversies surrounding Trump and how he treats women.

Trump’s job approval rating has risen to 46 percent but still wasn't enough to overcome the many negatives associated with his name. The strong economy is boosting Trump's approval rating with 60 percent of respondents saying they're okay with the job he’s doing.

Fifty-one percent of voters say the U.S. economy is on the right track. So, too, do 60 percent of men and 44 percent of women. Forty-six percent of independents say the same thing.

The poll shows 74 percent of voters describing the economy as strong or very strong. A majority, or 47 percent, believes the economy will stay the same over the next six months. On the other hand, 31 percent predicted a recession, while 22 percent said they believe the economy will improve.

US President Donald Trump addresses a White House meeting on human trafficking before rescinding restrictions on landmines US President Donald Trump addresses a White House meeting on human trafficking before rescinding restrictions on landmines Photo: AFP / ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS