KEY POINTS

  • National polls predict a tough fight between the two oldest candidates on the Democratic ticket: Biden and Sanders
  • President Donald Trump still believes he'll win at Iowa
  • "If we don’t win, your farms are going to hell,” Trump said

The 85 percent white, blue collar and mostly rural voters in Iowa might again predict who the next president of the United States will be when they vote on Monday.

This barometer of the country's political sentiment, as flawed as it seems, has seen the winners on the Democratic and Republican side later go on to claim their party's nomination for president. It also went on to predict the subsequent winners of the 2008, 2012 and 2016 elections.

Iowa voted overwhelmingly for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, said the New York Times. In 2008, Obama beat John McCain by nine points. In 2016, Iowa gave Trump a nine-point victory over Hillary Clinton. With the 2020 campaign formally beginning at 7:00 a.m. today, Republicans and especially Democrats are again looking to Iowa to show them the road ahead.

The latest CNN Poll of Polls released Friday shows former vice president Joe Biden ahead of Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-VT, headed into Iowa. Biden averages 27 percent support among registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents or likely Democratic voters. On the other hand, Sanders averages 24 percent.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-MA, averages 14 percent; former New York City mayor Mike Bloomberg, 8 percent; Mayor Pete Buttigieg, 7 percent; Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-MN, 5 percent; businessman Andrew Yang, 4 percent; and billonaire Tom Steyer, 2 percent.

The CNN Poll of Polls is an average of the six most recent nonpartisan, live operator, national surveys on the race for the Democratic presidential nomination conducted among potential Democratic voters.

Trump is a shoo-in for the nomination against his three lesser known opponents: Roque De La Fuente, Bill Weld and Joe Walsh. Past polls have show Trump enjoying the support of nine in 10 Republican voters.

On January 27, Trump came to a rally in Iowa where he predicted Iowa will again deliver for him again in November. He also warned what would happen if it didn't.

“We’re going to win the great state of Iowa, and it’s going to be a historic landslide,” said Trump. “And if we don’t win, your farms are going to hell.”

Some Republicans even predicted a landslide for Trump in November because the economy and everything else is headed in the right direction for Trump.

Not so fast, say Democrats. Iowa in 2020 isn't the same Iowa Trump won in 2016. Since that time, Iowa has turned a lot more Blue with Democrats winning two of the state’s four congressional seats from Republicans in the 2018 midterms. Dems also flipped four statehouse seats in the midterms and claim they're Democrats  making deep inroads with Republicans and Independents.

The anti-Trump sentiment has also become stronger in cities like Des Moines and those along the Mississippi River. Democrats point to the demographic fact this area is home to the country’s largest cluster of counties that voted twice for Barack Obama. These pivot counties, consisting mostly of farming families have suffered greatly from  Trump’s trade war against China.

"We are up for grabs,” said Sean Bagniewski, chairman of the Democratic Party of Polk County, which includes Des Moines.

US President Donald Trump was impeached by the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives for for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress US President Donald Trump was impeached by the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives for for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress Photo: AFP / ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS