Texas Coronavirus To Peak In 15 Days, But Gov. Abbott Looks To Ease Lockdown Sooner

Texas is currently ranked the 10th hardest hit state by COVID-19 with 13,640 confirmed cases and 278 deaths, as of Easter Sunday afternoon. These figures are just 7% of New York State's 189,415 cases and 3% of 9,385 deaths, low numbers Texas credits to its successful social distancing measures.

Together, these seem to be the reasons why governor Greg Abbott is raising eyebrows by announcing his plan on April 10 to issue an executive order this week lifting lockdown restrictions and allowing some businesses to reopen. What makes Abbott's decision controversial in the eyes of public health experts is the state's peak deaths -- 66 -- are predicted to occur by April 28, which is two weeks away. Statewide COVID-19 cases and deaths are also rising and the case and death rates are nowhere near their predicted peaks.

The statistical model from IHME, or the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, predicts 57 deaths by May 5, 44 by May 10 and 20 by May 20. Four deaths are predicted on June 1.

Texas reported 890 more COVID-19 cases Saturday, an increase of 8% over Friday, bringing the total number of known cases to 12,561. It also revealed 28 additional deaths, taking the statewide total to 254, or a 12% jump from Friday. Harris County reported six additional deaths. These new fatalities brought its total to 40 deaths, more than any other Texas county.

In addition, only 116,000 Texans have been tested for the coronavirus, or 0.4% of the state's total population of 29 million. These realities seem not to deter Abbott, who came out on the side of the business community with this decision.

"We can and we must do this," said Abbott. "We can do both, expand and restore the livelihoods that Texans want to have by helping them return to work. One thing about Texans, they enjoy working and they want to get back into the workforce. We have to come up with strategies on how we can do this safely."

Abbott said the focus of his upcoming executive order will be "restoring livelihoods" and helping Texans re-enter the frozen state economy. He, however, did not reveal when he plans to reopen businesses. The announcements come less than two weeks after Abbott told residents to stay at home for the entire month of April.

"We will operate strategically," according to Abbott. "If we do it too fast without appropriate strategies, it will lead to another potential closure."

Abbott alleges he has a plan to boost coronavirus testing in the state. He mentioned a partnership with Walgreens that will allow tests to be administered through a drive-through window. Test results for this serological or antibody test will be available in 15 minutes.

To ease his path towards re-opening Texas, Abbott on Sunday extended the disaster declaration covering all counties. The declaration will provide the groundwork for Abbott to continue to waive state regulations and laws as he tries to effectively cope with the growing outbreak.

“By extending my Disaster Declaration, we are ensuring the state of Texas continues to have adequate resources and capabilities to support our communities and protect public health,” said Abbott. “I urge all Texans to continue practicing social distancing and abide by the guidelines laid out by the CDC and my Executive Orders to slow the spread of COVID-19.”