What States Can Trump Win In 2020 That He Lost To Hillary Clinton In 2016?

While there has been ample attention about what states Democratic nominee Joe Biden can flip in 2020, President Donald Trump may have hopes of winning two states that he narrowly lost in 2016.

Trump was able to carry three crucial states in 2016 that helped propel him to victory. By fewer than 80,000 total votes, Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. All three Rust Belt states had voted for Democratic nominees in recent presidential elections.

In New Hampshire and Minnesota, Trump lost by fewer than 50,000 total votes. The two states have 14 total electoral votes.

The Trump campaign reportedly plans to spend more advertising money in Minnesota than in Wisconsin or Michigan, dropping roughly $14 million.

“A lot of people look at Minnesota as the Pennsylvania of 2020,” Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien told reporters on Sept. 8.

Though the Trump campaign may hope to win the two states, recent polls indicate it's a difficult task. The RealClearPolitics average of recent polls indicates Biden leads in Minnesota by an average of 9.4 points and in New Hampshire by an average of 8.6 points.

One big obstacle for the Trump campaign might be the lack of visibility from third-party candidates and a strong presence from liberal voters who are disenchanted by Biden.

In 2016, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont received nearly 4,500 write-in votes in New Hampshire. The support had the potential to tip the state, since Clinton carried New Hampshire by fewer than 3,000 votes. Also seeing a surge in votes in 2016 were the Libertarian and Green parties, which combined for more than 37,000 votes.

Nationally, the Libertarian and Green parties have seen a considerable drop in voter support, so Trump can't count on either party to play a spoiler role. Both parties have new candidates on the ballot in 2020 after nominating the same candidate in 2016 as they did in 2012.

New Hampshire was a deciding state in 2000, when President George W. Bush collected its four electoral votes and finished with 271 electoral votes -- just one more than needed to clinch the victory. But in 2004, Democrat John Kerry won New Hampshire and Democrats have not surrendered it since. Trump reportedly is not spending much money to win in 2020.

Meanwhile, Minnesota in recent years has become a deeper blue state. Minnesota has two Democrats in the U.S. Senate and the Democratic governor won in a landslide in 2018. Minnesota has also been the subject of national attention after the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis.