Wall Street analysts say the iPhone X will push a large number of consumers to upgrade their devices, but KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says the “super cycle” will happen until 2018, according to an investor’s note obtained by MacRumors.

Apple will release the iPhone X in November, but Kuo says “the real super cycle” won’t occur until next year. A supercycle is described as a high demand in upgrading to a new phone. Wall Street analysts believe many people who bought the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus three years ago will want to get a brand new device this year.

Face ID Will Push Super Cycle

Apple has been reportedly struggling with the iPhone X’s main feature, the Face ID. The facial recognition system has been causing production issues, which means the smartphone could be released in limited quantities. Kuo said the Face ID’s TrueDepth camera shortage won’t last long, but that supply limitations will push the super cycle back to 2018, instead of previous predictions pointing to a surge in upgrades at the end of 2017.

The analyst said the iPhone X’s production problems should be resolved by the end of the year, and that shipments will “pick up strongly” in the first half of next year.

Kuo wrote :

“The market generally refers to 2017 as the super cycle of the iPhone, but we think the real super cycle will be in 2018 for the following reasons: (1) TrueDepth Camera's production issues will be significantly addressed in 2018F; (2) new models launched in 2018F will enjoy a longer sales period than those unveiled in 2017; and (3) the product mix, specifications and designs of new iPhone models from 2018F will be more competitive. We estimate that for 2017, iPhone shipments will come in at 210-220mn units, which should grow to be 245-255mn units in 2018.”

Kuo also predicts fourth-quarter sales of the iPhone 8, which was released last month, will be better than expected. However, the device will probably be overshadowed in November when the iPhone X is released.

Apple iPhone X Super Cycle Predictions

In January, Nomura Instinet analysts predicted a “supercycle” in the last three months of 2017. However, Deutsche Bank analysts said during the summer that previous forecasts were too optimistic. The analysts said investors will be “disappointed by iPhone growth in FY-18 and FY-19.” Deutsche Bank said the higher price of the iPhone could affect sales.

"Generally, when prices go up, demand goes down," they said. "A scenario where prices go up and demand goes up seems highly unlikely in our view."

iPhone X Release Date, Price, Pre-Order

Apple will start taking pre-orders for the iPhone X on Oct. 27 and will launch the device Nov. 3. The 10th anniversary iPhone will be offered in 64GB and 256GB starting at $999. The iPhone X features a 5.8-inch edge-to-edge Super Retina display with OLED technology. The device comes with features the iPhone 8 doesn’t have, including Face ID, no home button and Animoji.