Cathie Wood's Ark Says Elon Musk's SpaceX Valuation Could Reach $2.5T by 2030, $12.8T by 2040

Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood recently reiterated her bullish forecast for Elon Musk's Tesla company, expecting the stock price to reach a staggering £1,912 ($2,600) per share in five years.

Earlier this week, Wood's firm made another bold prediction about Musk's SpaceX in a report created in collaboration with consulting firm Mach33. The report detailed that the rocket company will achieve an enterprise value of an astronomical £1.83 trillion ($2.5 trillion) by 2030.

The $2.5 trillion valuation forecast would mean a 38% compound annual rate of return since SpaceX's £257.51 billion ($350 billion) funding round in December 2024. The Ark Invest report's bull case scenario forecasts SpaceX's valuation could reach £2.28 trillion ($3.1 trillion) by 2030, while a bear case predicts a £1.25 trillion ($1.7 trillion) or less in the same period, with each case having a 25% probability. The report leveraged a Monte Carlo simulation to arrive at the valuation forecasts.

According to the report, SpaceX's business model works like a flywheel. It uses cash to construct rockets and satellites for orbital bandwidth and generates revenue from Starlink customers by offering them space-based internet connectivity. The revenue is then reinvested back into the business.

The cash flows are eventually channelled towards Musk's plans for Mars. Starlink has over six million active connections across 140 nations as of June 2025. The report's base case trajectory indicates bandwidth growth by 30 times to 20,000 Terabits per second (Tbps) as the on-orbit mass of Starlink satellites grows by 13 times in five years.

Ark Invest's analysis of data revealed that SpaceX could begin generating revenues of around £220.72 billion ($300 billion) annually when the Starlink constellation is completed around 2035.

Once the Starlink constellation is completed, Ark Invest expects the company to sustain the satellites and boost investments in the Mars program. By then, SpaceX's Starship rocket is also likely to improve significantly, especially in terms of reusability, enabling more launch cycles with fewer vehicles while transporting the same payload amounts to orbit.

Ark's analysis of Falcon 9 data revealed that Starship's turnaround time would fall at a constant rate of 27% as payloads transported to orbit double in value.

Optimus Robots, Boring Machines Play a Critical Role in The Mars Program

According to Wood's firm, Musk's Optimus robots and Boring Company machines were designed to develop infrastructure in extraterrestrial environments that could be used for colonization.

Wood recently said that Tesla's Optimus robots are designed to ramp productivity and boost profitability. Musk told CNBC last month he expects Tesla to produce a million Optimus robots annually by 2030.

The report assumes that Starships will leverage Mars-adapted Optimus robots, with the fleet 'growing to the millions' over time. The robust workforce will eventually be tasked to build infrastructure to support a permanent colony on Mars, and Ark expects productivity to improve over time.

However, payloads to sustain early human habitation are expected to be complex and unlikely to 'meaningfully' add to SpaceX's book value. A previous Mach33 report noted it could cost £56.65 million ($77 million) per person to build and maintain a 'small' Mars outpost of 10 people with 152 metric tonnes of equipment and 950 cubic metres of volume.

Over time, Mars is expected to account for a major chunk of SpaceX's enterprise value growth. For now, Ark expects SpaceX to dedicate a 'small' portion of its budget to the Mars mission until the Starlink constellation is complete. The investment firm added that investors might not witness much of a return on capital for a 'significant' period, considering the scale and long-term objective of the program.

The report also set a 2040 forecast for SpaceX. The base case valuation was estimated at £9.41 trillion ($12.8 trillion), and a bull case forecast was as high as £10.66 trillion ($14.5 trillion). 'That extra spread represents a decade's worth of Mars optionality layered on top of a cash-rich Starlink core,' according to Ark. However, the estimates heavily rely on SpaceX's capability to make Starship a reliable interplanetary vehicle.

Overall, the report said there is 'no guarantee' that Optimus will be capable of supporting infrastructure development within the modelled timeline.

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Originally published on IBTimes UK