Chances Of White Christmas This Year? 2017 US Snow Forecast

Dashing through the snow, Jack Frost nipping at your nose and white Christmases are all the things holiday carols are made of -- but what's the chance that you could actually have snow this holiday?

There won’t be an accurate weather forecast for Christmas until just about five days before the holiday, and even then it won’t be completely accurate. So if you’re dreaming of a white Christmas you’ll have to wait it out a bit longer. But if you just can’t go without knowing the chances, there’s always historical data that can show the probability of snowfall before or on the holiday.

Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration as well as the company Vouchercloud, show how likely it is that there will be snow on the ground where you live, based on conditions from past years.

If you’re staying in the United States for the holiday and want the highest chance possible for a holiday filled with snow, your best bet is to head to Alaska where Vouchercloud is predicting a 66 percent chance of snow. Your second best chance of snow is on the other side of the country, in Vermont.

To predict each country's chance of a white Christmas, Vouchercloud looked specifically at the last eight years of snow data in each country’s capital city from World Weather Online. Then examined the number of days with snow and added those up to calculate the chance of snow falling on a run of the mill December day. For data on the states, the process was repeated using state capitals.

NOAA compiled its data a bit differently, and focused solely on the U.S. NOAA also used many more factors in addition to snowfall data to calculate the chances of snow. To calculate the probability NOAA combined data on monthly temperatures, precipitation, snowfall, heating and cooling degree days, frost and freeze dates, all from more than 9,000 weather stations around the country.

The result of all of this data is a map that shows the areas of the lower 48 that are most and least likely to have a white Christmas as well as everything in between. The darker colors show the lower chances that there will be snow, while white indicates the highest chance with variations of blue between showing the rest. The scale along the bottom of the map shows the percentage chance, or you can use the interactive map to check the chance that your specific city or town will have snow.

In the U.S., the chances of a white Christmas are highest in the Northeast, and the Midwest in states like Idaho, Minnesota, Maine, and upstate New York. NOAA only mapped the U.S. because that’s where all of its data comes from. For chances of a white Christmas in other countries, the data from Vouchercloud comes in handy.

In England, the chance of snow as this year’s big Christmas gift is just six percent, sadly low for anyone hoping to go sledding or dashing through the snow on the 25, according to data from Vouchercloud. Your chances of seeing some snow are far higher in countries like Russia, Greenland, Norway, and even Canada.