India's Airlines Battle Pilot Shortages Even As They Eye Steep Growth With Hundreds Of New Planes

When India's oldest airline placed two mammoth orders totaling 470 aircraft with Boeing and Airbus last month, it underscored the remarkable trajectory of the country's economy, which has shaken off decades of socialist-era lethargy and rode rapid growth to emerge as a bright spot in a gloomy global economy.

But as India's airline industry basks in the attention that its bold growth plans have brought, it is also confronting a shortage of experienced captains to fly their expanding fleets, which is already beginning to sour the customer experience. Flight disruptions and delays have become more common, and some pilots said in interviews that their paychecks, hammered down during the pandemic years, are yet to get back to pre-pandemic levels. These challenges show that India's airlines will have their hands full managing the expansion and keeping customers and employees happy.

Robust economic growth in the last decade or so has made India the world's number three aviation market, next only to China and the U.S. Boeing had last year forecast this market to grow at a steady annual rate of nearly 7% up to 2041, in their Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) of India.

Air India's order, which was valued between $70 billion and $80 billion, includes 250 Airbus planes and 220 Boeing aircraft. The airline also has the option to purchase 370 additional aircraft, bringing the total up to 840.

Indigo, a highly successful low-cost carrier that has built its name on the back of its punctuality, connectivity and efficiency, and already has 500 new planes on order, is also reportedly in talks to buy more planes.

The ballooning fleets come with a set of challenges, Ameya Joshi, an independent aviation analyst based in the western city of Pune, told International Business Times. "There are a 1,000 planes on order, which will be a mix of replacement and additions ... The challenge will largely be with having trained pilots, trained crew, aircraft maintenance engineers and ground staff."

Trained pilots is the big problem. India has suffered from a huge pilot shortage for a long time. The shortage made headlines in 2019 when, following widespread flight disruptions, a top official in the country's civil aviation ministry spoke of training and transitioning pilots from the Indian Air Force to fly civilian passenger aircraft. The Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA) estimated in 2019 that the Indian aviation industry will need to employ 17.164 pilots in the next 10 years — 16,000 at the first-officer level and 1,000 at the commander level, and predicted a shortage of 14% at the same period.

Pilots from the IAF who have transitioned to flying civilian passenger planes and expat pilots have helped fill the gap to some extent, so far. But as the new planes on the order books join the fleets, the need for additional trained crew will become even more pressing.

For perspective, Air India can expect 3-4 new aircraft deliveries per month over a 10-year period, The Hindu newspaper quoted Hemanth D.P., the CEO of Asia Pacific Flight Training Academy, in a report: "An average of 12 sets of pilots (12 commanders and an equal number of first officers per aircraft) for ultra-long-haul flights, such as to the U.S.; 8.5 sets of pilots for long haul flights, such as to Europe; alongside an average of 7 sets of cockpit crew for every narrow body (aircraft) gives a total of nearly 7,000 pilots and co-pilots."

In December, Air India's pilots' union wrote to the airline about pilot shortages and other on-the-job challenges that included long work hours and pay cuts. The Indian Pilots Guild & Pilots' Association said in the letter that pilots employed by the airline flew 90 hours per month across all fleets, exceeding the industry norm of 70 hours, raising severe concerns about pilot exhaustion and passenger safety.

The pilots also alleged that they lost pay when they availed of leaves including the days they underwent training, CNBC-TV18 reported.

These complaints came soon after the airline denied reports that it was facing a manpower shortage and said several delays on its North American routes were caused by operational issues arising from delayed internal processes and assured it was working to fix the same.

Still, last month, several Air India flights to the U.S. and Canada were either canceled or faced delays due to crew shortages. "There is an acute shortage of manpower, which is impacting airline's operations, particularly to the U.S. and Canada," news agency PTI reported citing a source.

Expat pilots get a sweeter deal?

Airlines have tried to hire expatriate pilots to meet their requirements. But it is a comparatively costly option and has stirred up some resentment among Indian pilots over the better pay and benefits reportedly made to them.

Retired pilot Shakti Lumba recently tweeted what he said were pages from one such contract, which showed a monthly base salary of $10,000 monthly base, net of taxes and not including overtime pay, housing allowance and other benefits, for 70 hours of flying per month.

Capt. N.P. Puri, a 54-year aviation industry veteran, told IBT that senior Indian pilots whose pandemic-era paychecks were about INR 550,000-600,000 (about $6,700-$7,300) were now earning only about INR 400,000-450,000 a month. Flight trainers who made INR 700,000 lacs were down to INR 550,000.

He said senior pilots have voiced their discontent about airlines hiring a foreign crew. He pointed out that pilot pay has not kept pace with the years they add to their experience.

CNN Traveler reported, quoting a 41-year-old pilot who had requested anonymity, that captains who previously earned $7,876 per month were down to $605 per month. The hit on entry-level pay was even worse, that report said.

This has happened despite airlines currently operating at full capacity across all domestic and international sectors as air travel has roared back post the pandemic. Puri said airlines have to work toward offering better pay packages to attract experienced pilots.

But there is a glut at the entry-level!

Interestingly, this shortage of experienced pilots exists alongside a glut in the supply of entry-level pilots. Arun Kumar, the director general of India's aviation regulator, the DGCA, said last week that one out of every three pilots who finish their flight training in India is unemployed.

"There are still 5,000 to 6,000 pilots who are out there in the market looking for a job," he told The Hindu newspaper.

Last year, the DGCA issued 1,081 CPLs, the highest for any year since 2012.

It takes anywhere between 4 and 15 years for a first officer to graduate to the role of a captain. So it would be some years before abundance in supply at the entry-level starts helping the airlines in their expansion plans.

Joshi, the analyst, said airlines are moving quickly to address the crew shortages, with new flight training organizations (FTOs) being set up across the country. IndiGo has tied up with flying schools and Air India is setting up a training academy, to address their flying crew needs.

That the new planes' arrival will be staggered gives airlines some breathing room to get the crew and infrastructure in place.

Lumba tweeted Tuesday calling on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's office to directly oversee aviation training and start a push to train pilots.

Air India and Indigo did not immediately respond to emails seeking comments for this article.