A new national poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden surging to a “landside” margin over President Donald Trump, and five other Democrats also leading in head-to-head contests. 

The Quinnipiac University poll found Biden with 53% of the vote against Trump’s 40%, a margin described by Tim Malloy, assistant director of the poll, as a “landslide.”

“It’s a long 17 months to Election Day, but Joe Biden is ahead by landslide proportions,” Malloy told thehill.com.

 

 

Five other Democrats also led Trump in the poll, including Sens. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., Kamala Harris, D-Calif., and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., with leads of 9 points, 8 points, and 7 points respectively. Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg both showed a five point lead over the president, with each posting a 47 to 42 split.

Virtually all of the results are outside the poll’s 3.5% plus or minus margin of error. Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,214 voters nationwide from June 6 to June 10. The poll included 503 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.4%.

Biden’s double-digit lead over Trump primarily is fueled by gender. While Biden edges out Trump among men, 47% to 46%, among women Biden leads by 26 points, 60 to 34.

At the same time, white voters are essentially split between the two candidates, but black and Hispanic voters overwhelmingly support Biden. Among black voters, Biden leads 85 to 12, and 58 to 33 among Latinos. 

Biden and Trump were in Iowa on Tuesday exchanging barbs with the other at their respective events. An Emerson Poll in March showed Biden leading Trump by six points, 53 to 47, but Biden’s lead over other Democrats has been slipping. In an Iowa Poll last week, 24% of Iowans likely to attend the Democratic caucuses in February 2020 said Biden was their first choice for president, followed by Sanders, 16%, Warren, 15%, and Buttigieg, 14%. Biden’s lead is down from 27% in March and 32% last December.

 

 

Both Warren and Buttigieg have seen significant increases in their Iowa percentages since March.  At that time, Warren was at 9% and Buttigieg a virtual unknown at 1%. 

However, neither poll may be a solid indicator for a general election, the outcome of which will turn on just a handful of swing states. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will figure prominently in the 2020 election outcome.

Trump was the first Republican to win those states since George H.W. Bush in 1988. If nothing else changed, but Democrats were able to win back those states, they would win the Electoral College, which has been the final arbiter in five presidential contests, including 2016, and the 2000 match up between George W. Bush and Albert Gore, Jr. The Bush-Gore contest was the closest election since 1876, and only the fourth election to date where the winner did not also carry the popular vote. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won 2.9 million more votes than Trump, but he carried the Electoral College, making him the fifth president to take office without winning a popular majority.

Nevertheless, the Quinnipiac poll had some good news for Trump. His approval rating climbed to 42%, just one point off his best-ever showing in the poll, Malloy said.