Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by four points in the crucial swing state of Florida, a Mason-Dixon poll released on Thursday says. The survey shows Biden at 50% support, with Trump at 46%. The poll has a four-point margin of error.

Poll aggregator Real Clear Politics shows Biden with an average lead of 6.7 points over Trump in Florida.

Florida has 29 electoral votes and is considered a must-win state for the Trump campaign. Trump won Florida by a 1.2 point margin in 2016 over Hillary Clinton, 49% to 47.8%. 

Northern Florida and the Panhandle tend to vote strongly Republican in presidential elections, while South Florida is the most Democratic region of the state. Democratic candidate Barack Obama carried the state in both the 2008 and 2012 elections. 

Florida is currently Trump’s home state, as he moved his permanent residence from New York in 2019 for tax purposes. Florida does not levy personal income or estate taxes.

Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic may be pushing some Florida voters towards Biden, as cases surge in the state. The Florida Department of Health on Wednesday confirmed that 216 people died from the virus on Tuesday, a new single-day record for the state.

Recent nationwide polls also show Biden with a strong lead over Trump. An IBD/TIPP poll on Thursday shows Biden ahead of Trump, 48%-41%.