KEY POINTS

  • Some Trump officials believe Iran's missile attack could have been deadly
  • They believe Iran merely wanted to send a warning message to the U.S.
  • Trump said Wednesday that the missile attack caused no casualties

U.S. President Donald Trump's refusal to escalate the conflict with Iran points to the White House moderates' victory over the war hawks who persuaded the president to order the assassination of a top Iranian general last week.

Hours after Iranian missiles struck a base in Iraq housing U.S. troops early Wednesday, Trump confirmed that no Americans were harmed and said "Iran appeared to be standing down," in an apparent climbdown from his earlier threat to hit one of 52 Iranian targets.

White House insiders indicated that Iran deliberately avoided U.S. casualties while striking targets in Iraq in retaliation to the assassination of a top general that strained relations between the two countries.

According to a State Department official who spoke with CNN, Iran could have easily caused casualties if that’s what they wanted to do. Instead, Iran was signaling to the U.S. that while they could have caused more damage, they chose to avoid provoking an escalation of force.

That official believes Iran made a “smart move” because it allowed them “to do what they needed to do and not escalate by killing Americans.”

In other words, Iran’s leaders could save face by following through on their promise to seek revenge following the U.S.’ airstrike on one of their senior generals. Better yet, it would also likely mean avoiding a potentially bloody conflict.

In a country that has recently been beset by deadly civil unrest, having one of Iran’s favorite foes, the United States, come on the scene to provide a distraction may have been seen as something of a lucky break for the country’s leaders.

Right now, there are two Iran agendas in the White House vying for Trump’s attention. Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo are known for their hard-line stances against Iran. More recently, both were reportedly actively pushing Trump to order the strike against Soleimani.

Less visible is a group which isn’t keen on provoking Iran into a major conflict, instead advocating for a more temperate approach to confrontation. It would seem that while the war hawks won over Trump on Friday, those pushing for a more moderate approach appear to have convinced the president to not order a retaliatory strike.

US President Donald Trump says a US pullout from Iraq at this time would be the "worst thing" for the country
US President Donald Trump says a US pullout from Iraq at this time would be the "worst thing" for the country AFP / SAUL LOEB