KEY POINTS

  • Several recent polls show President Donald Trump losing to Democratic challenger Joe Biden in November
  • GOP fears it also could lose control of the Senate and fail to recapture the House if numbers don't change
  • Republican strategists advise against allowing the election to be a referendum on Trump

The Republican Party faces the real possibility of losing control of the White House and the Senate in the Nov. 3 general election, as well as failing to retake the House, the latest polling data shows.

GOP fears are being fanned by polls showing presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden ahead of President Donald Trump both nationally and in key battleground states.

State and national polls also show the Democrats with a good chance of taking over the Senate majority and retaining control of the House.

“If the election were today, we would lose the House, the Senate and the White House,” an unnamed Republican was quoted as telling The Hill.

If so, the Democratic Party would assume control of the White House and the full Congress, a feat it last achieved in the 111th Congress from 2009 to 2011 with Barack Obama as president.

A Gallup poll last May found 31% of Americans identifying as Democrats, 25% as Republicans and 40% as Independents. As for membership, Democrats count 46 million party members compared to 33 million members of the Republican Party.

In this election cycle, poll after poll shows Independents siding with Democrats on major issues such as Trump's handling of the pandemic, race realtions, and his sagging approval rating.

GOP candidates on the downballot are concerned Trump's unpopularity will doom their campaigns. Add to that a huge shortfall in campaign contributions being reported by the Republican National Congress (RNC).

Some GOP candidates also complain the RNC is more focused on reelecting Trump and protecting the Senate GOP majority than it is in supporting local state candidates. The Democrats must win four new seats (or three and the vice presidency) to swing the Senate.

As for the House, the GOP must contend with the reality of 27 retiring members. Republicans would have to win all of those seats and wrest 17 more seats from the Democrats to seize control of the House.

Several GOP lawmakers warn the party faces a landslide defeat on election day if Trump doesn’t soon start eating away into Biden's steadily rising poll numbers.

“This is the problem: (Trump) continues to allow it to be a referendum on himself. You can’t do that in a competitive race,” according to one GOP lawmaker.

US President Donald Trump addresses the annual National Rifle Association convention in 2019
US President Donald Trump addresses the annual National Rifle Association convention in 2019 GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / SCOTT OLSON