Midterm Elections 2022: Redistricting Could Help Republicans Take Back House
Midterm elections are almost a year away with both parties looking to gain ground for the remainder of President Joe Biden’s term.
Midterm elections historically favor the party that does not control the White House. This is good news for Republicans and redistricting is expected to also help the party.
Redistricting occurs every 10 years after the U.S. census is completed. As a result, some states will gain seats and others will lose them.
Republicans hold control of redistricting in 18 states, including Texas, Florida and North Carolina. Some election experts believe Republicans could retake control of the House in 2022 based on newly drawn districts.
Texas is expected to gain three seats and Florida is expected to gain two. Illinois, New York and California are all expected to lose seats, which could improve Republicans' chances regardless of job approval and other metrics.
Gerrymandering is expected to be an issue in next year’s election, as Republicans redrew the maps in 2011 and 2012, which was an advantage for several election cycles.
“The lingering effects of partisan gerrymandering, disproportionately by Republican-controlled legislatures, make it harder for the Democrats to hold onto control or win control,” said Bernard Grofman, a professor of politics at the University of California at Irvine.
“We’ll continue to see racial gerrymandering and partisan gerrymandering in terms of packing in the urban areas,” said Allison Riggs, the interim executive director of the Southern Coalition for Social Justice. Despite the gerrymandered districts, Democrats still managed to take back the House in 2018.
Democrats currently control the House 222-211, so Republicans only need to flip six seats to gain a majority. As for the Senate, 34 seats are up for re-election in 2022, with 20 Republicans and 14 Democrats facing a battle. Democrats are looking to make gains in Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, while Republicans are hoping to do the same in Arizona, New Hampshire, Nevada and Georgia.
Races in Georgia, New Hampshire and Nevada are all leaning Democrat, with Ohio leaning Republican. North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are all seen as "toss-up races."
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