The Dallas Cowboys enter Week 18 as the NFC's No. 5 seed in the 2023 playoff picture, but America's Team still has a slim chance to earn a first-round bye. One unlikely scenario exists for the Cowboys to finish atop the conference standings.

The Cowboys' path to the No. 1 seed starts with a win over the Washington Commanders Sunday. A Dallas victory, along with losses for the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers, would give the Cowboys the top spot in the NFC playoff picture.

Philadelphia hosts the New York Giants and San Francisco plays at home against the Arizona Cardinals. All three games are scheduled to start at 4:25 p.m. ET.

It's going to be difficult for the Cowboys to get one of the losses that they need for a playoff bye, let alone two. The Eagles and 49ers are both 14-point favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook in Week 18. Philadelphia has -900 odds to win straight up. San Francisco is a -950 favorite.

The Giants are locked into the NFC's No. 6 seed and have nothing on the line in Week 18. The Cardinals are down to their fourth quarterback and have been out of contention for some time.

Dallas is a 7.5-point favorite with -360 odds to beat Washington on the road. The odds of the Cowboys, Giants and Cardinals all winning are north of +6600 at FanDuel. For comparison, the Giants are given a better chance to win the Super Bowl (+4800) than the Cowboys are to clinch the No. 1 seed.

In order for the Cowboys to move up at all in the NFC standings, Dallas needs a win coupled with a Philadelphia loss. Those results would give the Cowboys the NFC East championship. Dallas has +950 odds to win the division title for a second straight year.

If the Cowboys win the NFC East and the 49ers beat the Cardinals, Dallas will clinch the No. 2 seed. San Francisco would earn the No. 1 seed in such a scenario. The No. 2 seed will host the Seattle Seahawks, Green Bay Packers or Detroit Lions in the wild-card round.

A victory for the Eagles locks the Cowboys into the No. 5 seed and a matchup with the No. 4 seed Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Wild-Card Weekend. The Buccaneers beat the Cowboys 19-3 in Dallas in the season opener. Since that matchup, Dallas has won five more games than Tampa Bay.

The Minnesota Vikings will be either the No. 2 or No. 3 seed. The Cowboys own the tiebreaker over the Vikings.

The Cowboys were defeated by the 49ers at home in last year's wild-card round.

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys throws a touchdown pass to Blake Jarwin #89 during the second quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles in the game at AT&T Stadium on October 20, 2019 in Arlington, Texas. Tom Pennington/Getty Images