Tim Cook
Apple CEO Tim Cook Reuters/Robert Galbraith

With the recent release of the iPhone X, Apple could become the first $1 trillion dollar company in 2018 (if Amazon doesn’t catch up), a GBH Insights analyst said in a note, according to CNBC.

Apple is currently sitting at $868.1 billion, but the number could rise over the next year as the iPhone X pushes consumers to upgrade their iPhones. The Cupertino company’s share prices could rise between $210 and $230 in 2018, the analyst, Daniel Ives, said. AAPL stock as of Thursday afternoon was at $171.51, up from Wednesday’s $169.08 close.

How Apple Will Become A $1 Trillion Dollar Company In 2018

Wall Street analysts have predicted a super cycle with the release to the 2017 iPhones, and Ives’ prediction is similar. The analyst said there are over 350 million users with iPhones that are at least two years old, and many of those are due for an upgrade.

The analyst note said:

"It all comes down to the success and elongated demand trajectory of iPhone X over the coming quarters to determine if Apple finally ends up joining the elusive trillion dollar market cap club in 2018, in our opinion. [...] To this point, the first stage of the iPhone X launch is off to a great start in what will be a crucial prove me period for Cook and Apple over the next year."

The high price of the iPhone X, which starts at $999, could also play a part. Apple’s average selling price will increase from $643 in fiscal year 2017 to $746 in fiscal year 2018, Ives said. Most people could also go for the 256GB version of the iPhone X, which costs $1,149, according to GBH Insights data.

As for the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus, which were released in September, Ives said Apple will sell more of those models than during the peak iPhone 6 upgrade cycle. That would put the number of iPhone units for Apple's fiscal year to the end of September 2018 at 258 million, past the record 231 million that was seen in 2015.

Apple’s services division, which includes Apple Music and iCloud, could also boost the company. CEO Tim Cook said during the latest earnings call earlier this month that Apple’s services business is now the size of a Fortune 100 company. The Cupertino giant posted all-time record results for its services business, with paid subscriptions reaching 210 million at end of the September quarter. Apple Music in particular saw a 75 percent year-over-year increase in subscriptions, the company said. Ives predicts the Apple services business will reach $50 billion in revenues for the fiscal year ending September 2020.

Apple’s growth in China, which Ives describes as a “renaissance,” could also allow Apple to become a $1 trillion dollar company. The analyst estimates there is an install base of 100 million iPhone users in China, with half of them due for an upgrade in the next 12-18 months. Meanwhile, In the earnings call, Apple said its revenue grew 12 percent from a year ago quarter in China.

For now, Apple is predicting a strong holiday season. The company said a few weeks ago it expects the fiscal 2018 first quarter to be its biggest quarter yet. The company has been pushing its latest products to holiday shoppers on its site, including the iPhone X, iPhone 8, Apple Watch Series 3 and the Apple TV 4K.